Month: June 2020

Market Update – June 30, 2020

The July Fourth holiday will be very different this year. Although it’s a time to enjoy family and friends, and maybe even watch some fireworks, social distancing and a new wave of COVID-19 cases also may take a seat at the picnic table. We all continue to believe our doctors and medical community will help us conquer this disease; however, with more than 10 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 around the globe (Johns Hopkins), this terrible fight is far from over. Meanwhile, the US economy appears to be turning a major corner, and better times may be ahead later in 2020.

Recent economic data has created some fireworks itself, coming in significantly better than what economists had expected, and in some cases, beating previous records. For example, the May US Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report showed a record 2.5 million jobs created—10 million more than economists expected, according to Bloomberg. Additionally, retail sales soared nearly 18% in May, according to the US Census Bureau, again much better than what was expected. Even though these rebounds are coming off historically low levels, it has been encouraging to see how quickly the economy may be coming back.

The big question, though, is when will the economy get back to normal? Although parts of our economy are coming back quickly, other areas may take years to come back fully. Industries like hotels, restaurants, and airlines are going to be under pressure for a long time. In fact, in the 10 US recessions since 1950, it took nearly 30 months on average for all of the jobs that were lost to come back. More recently, it took four years for all the jobs to return after the tech bubble recession in the early 2000s, and more than six years for all of the lost jobs to return after the financial crisis of 2008–09. Our economy has lost nearly 20 million jobs in the past three months, and even with re-hiring activity in May and June, it may take years to recover all of those job losses. (Jobs data from US Census Bureau)

A major second wave of COVID-19 is the big wild card. Although most of us don’t expect to go into full lockdown mode again like we did in March and April, more restrictions may be put in place, which could hinder the economic recovery. But it isn’t all bad news. On June 22, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, said at a congressional hearing that a vaccine may be available by early 2021. He noted that in the past it has taken years to develop a vaccine against viruses, but with the entire world working together to beat COVID-19, this vaccine may be the fastest to market ever produced.

Voltaire said, “History never repeats itself. Man always does.” Given the stock market is driven by fear and greed, it has very human-like qualities, which means history may be a guide for what may happen next. In March 2003, stocks hit a major low before a huge spike into early summer, when stocks consolidated—or sat on their gains—during the summer months, followed by an eventual move higher later in the year. There was a very similar reaction in the summer of 2009 after the March 2009 bear market lows. So far in 2020 we’ve had the March lows and a huge rally, so historically, a summertime pullback or consolidation would be normal—and maybe even healthy.

While we’ve faced several health, social, and economic crises this year, July Fourth is a good time to think about how lucky we are to live in this great country and to remember the resilience and perseverance we’ve demonstrated over the past 244 years. History has shown us that better times will come.

 

 

 

Important Information
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of June 30, 2020.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All index data from FactSet.

This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Market Update – June 4, 2020

As we look ahead to the summer months, we can’t help but think what a challenging year it’s been so far. At the same time, we’re encouraged by the resiliency and accelerated innovation among US businesses and the efforts by our national, state, and local governments to support our communities. And we continue to be amazed by the unparalleled dedication and cooperation among our front-line healthcare professionals and medical researchers to see us through to the other side of this health crisis.

In a similar way, the recent strength of the financial markets appears to be looking beyond continued economic weakness. Much of the economic news has been dismal, and there may be more bad news ahead, but economic data is backward-looking. It’s important to remember that the stock market looks forward.

Economic numbers are still negative, but they aren’t as bad as they were a month ago, and that’s usually been a prelude to things starting to get better. New claims for unemployment are still historically high, but they’ve improved eight weeks in a row, and the total number of people on the unemployment rolls has actually started to drop (US Labor Bureau). Manufacturing activity contracted in May, according to the Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers’ Index, but it was better than the prior month for the first time since January. And new home sales actually rose in the most recent US Census Bureau data for April, when they were widely expected to collapse.

Small businesses are anticipating better times ahead, too. In a recent survey by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), small businesses expressed the most optimism about the economy improving than at any time in the last year and a half. And if they expect improvement, they’ll prepare for it—by retaining or rehiring workers, restocking inventories, and continuing to follow best practices for keeping customers safe.

Looking forward also means gauging the ongoing impact of fiscal support. In the United States, Congress is working on a new stimulus package. The European Commission recently announced an unprecedented 750 billion euro stimulus. Japan has announced additional stimulus that could bring its total pandemic response to 40% of that country’s gross domestic product (GDP). While debt levels are rising and may have to be addressed in the future, these current fiscal actions continue to play an important role in limiting any long-term economic damage from the recession.

The stock market may have gotten a little ahead of itself, and there still may be bouts of volatility, but recent gains in the S&P 500 Index are not out of character. Like us, the markets are seeing things to look forward to. Consider the recent rally as the stock market’s version of anticipating dinner out with friends, enjoying a ballgame, or planning a vacation. These may not be right around the corner, and there may be setbacks along the way, but the plans have been made.

 

 

 

Important Information
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of June 3, 2020.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All index data from FactSet.

This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.